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Kamis, 10 Januari 2008

Use history as a guide

I've listed the one-year and three-year trailing returns for each fund, using Feb. 4 as the end date for each period. Usually, I look mostly at three- and five-year fund returns, which I've found to be a better predictor of future performance than the shorter-term numbers. But China is a special case, since so much has changed in recent years. Foreign investment is a bigger factor, independent companies are on the rise and government-controlled firms are less important.

Thus, investing styles that worked five years ago may not be the best for today's market. Consequently, I've listed both the one- and three-year returns for each fund. Pay more attention to the three-year numbers, the better indicators of future performance.

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